ETENRU

Kuidas Firmo reiting arvutatakse

The Firmo rating answers one question: how big is the risk that this company cannot meet its obligations?

The rating is 0 to 100 points and class AAA to C. We calculate it only from official open data (Business Register, Tax and Customs Board, Official Announcements, court decisions) and payment defaults published in the Firmo debt register. The rating cannot be bought or changed manually. The rules are the same for everyone and public.

Only companies get a rating. We do not rate private individuals.

How the points were set

The points are nobody's opinion. At five points in time (2023 to 2025) we looked at all active Estonian companies and which of them entered bankruptcy within the next 12 months. Each indicator got as many points as it actually predicted bankruptcy. We tested the result on later data not used to set the points.

The scorecard gives no points for size or industry. High turnover, many employees or large assets alone do not make a company more reliable. A large, profitable company with a clean tax history gets a floor (see below). The industry does not affect the rating: we assess the company's own balance sheet, tax payments and reporting.

Klassid

KlassPunktidMeaningShare of companiesPankrot 12 kuu jooksul (ajalooliselt)
AAA87,2 kuni 100Excellent, very low risk31%alla 0,1%
AA80,1 kuni 87,1Very good, low risk30%alla 0,1%
A67 kuni 80Hea, madal risk19%0,1%
BBB53,8 kuni 66,9Rahuldav, keskmine risk14%0,3%
BB46,8 kuni 53,7Modest, higher risk3%0,7%
B36,7 kuni 46,7Weak, high risk2%1,8%
C0 kuni 36,6Unsatisfactory, very high risk1%over 1,8%
NNot rated, too little data

A clean company starts high: the scorecard result is raised by one class (for example the scorecard BBB threshold 53.8 is 67, i.e. A, in the rating). The rating falls due to tax debt, enforcement, payment defaults and unfiled reports (see limits below).

Bankruptcy probability is the actual bankruptcy rate of companies in this class in the 2025 test data. It is a statistic, not a prediction about one specific company.

Millest punktid tulevad

1. Aruandlus, kuni 21 punkti

IndicatorPunktid
Viimase aruande vanusunder 13 months 8.5 · 13 to 18 6.6 · 19 to 24 3.4 · 25+ 0 · no report 2.9
Delay of the next reportnot late 9.1 · under 90 days 4.9 · 90 to 179 3.7 · 180 to 364 2.5 · over a year 0 · no report 4.4
Eelmise aruande esitamineon time 3.2 · late under 60 days 1.1 · 60 to 179 0.3 · over 180 0 · no data 2.2

2. Liquidity and cash, up to 30 points

IndicatorPunktid
Liquidity (current assets / current liabilities)no current liabilities 13.3 · 3+ 12 · 1.5 to 3 6 · 1 to 1.5 4 · 0.8 to 1 1.3 · under 0.8 0.8 · no data 6.2
Raha puhver (kuu kuludes)6+ months 16.3 · 3 to 6 12.4 · 1 to 3 9.8 · 0.5 to 1 4.6 · under 0.5 0 · no data 7.6

3. Activity and trend, up to 21 points

IndicatorPunktid
Turnover 12 months vs previous 12 (Tax Board)0 to +20% and more 5.9 · 0 to −20% 3.5 · −20 to −50% 2.1 · over −50% 0 · no data 5.9
Employment taxes 12 months vs previous 120 to +20% 7.3 · +20% or more 5.8 · 0 to −20% 3.3 · −20 to −50% 0.5 · over −50% 0 · no data 6.2
Employment taxes stopped in the last 2 quartersno 1.3 · yes 0
Revenue change over the year0 to 10% 1.1 · −20 to −50% 0.6 · 0 to −20% 0.4 · 10 to 30% 0.4 · 30%+ 0.2 · over −50% 0 · no data 0
Vanus20+ years 5.3 · 1 to 2 4.2 · 3 to 5 3.2 · 5 to 10 3.1 · 2 to 3 2.8 · 10 to 20 2.6 · under 1 1.1 · no data 0

4. Finantsseis, kuni 28 punkti

IndicatorPunktid
Omakapitali osakaal varadest60%+ 22,5 · 30 kuni 60% 12,3 · 0 kuni 30% 9,8 · negatiivne 0 · andmed puuduvad 12,7
Profit margin15%+ 4,3 · 5 kuni 15% 2,1 · 0 kuni 5% 0,9 · alla 0% 0,4 · andmed puuduvad 1,3
Equity change over the year (of assets)0 to +5% 1.7 · +5%+ 1.5 · 0 to −5% 0.7 · −5 to −20% 0.6 · over −20% 0 · no data 0.6

Cash buffer: if revenue exceeds 1 million euros, a small year-end bank balance gives no penalty (at least the "3 to 6 months" points), because a large company's money is in goods and invoices.

A better indicator is never scored lower (for example a higher equity share always gives at least as many points).

Report age: figures from the new year's reports reach Business Register open data within a few months after the deadline (30.06). Until then, we do not treat the previous year's report as outdated or late.

"No data" means the indicator cannot be calculated (for example the report has no cash line). Then the points are neutral.

Floor: clean tax history and strong balance sheet

If a company has no tax debt or tax debt history in 2 years, no enforcement, tax demand or published payment default, its last report is not older than 3 years and it is at least 3 years old, its class does not fall below these floors:

Balance sheet and profitClass at least
Turnover at least €10 million (or state taxes over €1 million per quarter), equity at least 25% of assets, profitable, at least 5 years oldAAA, 95 kuni 97 punkti
Equity at least 40% of assets, profit at least 5% of turnover, at least 5 years old, turnover at least €1,000,000AAA
Same, turnover €200,000 to €1,000,000AA
Equity at least 30% of assets and profitableAA
Positive equity and profitableA
Active at least 1 year, has turnover, no tax debt or enforcement, equity not negativeA
Positiivne omakapitalBBB

A company paying over €1 million in state taxes per quarter with no tax debt is at least AA even if report figures are missing.

Reason: the scorecard compares all companies, including very many small firms without liabilities. A profitable active company with a normal loan burden must not get a low class just because it has a bank loan or trade payables.

Tax debt, enforcement and bankruptcy

Our tax debt history starts on 27.09.2026, so these are not yet calibrated into the points. They act as limits: the class cannot be higher, regardless of points.

AsjaoluEffect
Bankruptcy or liquidationhighest class C
Bankruptcy petition in court in the last 12 months (disposal ban, deposit order, interim trustee)C, 0 points, credit not recommended (bankruptcy risk)
Tax debt over €10,000 and over 90 dayshighest class B
Tax debt over €5,000 or over 60 dayshighest class BB
Tax debt €1,000 to €5,000 or 31 to 60 daysclass one step lower
Small tax debt under €1,000 and up to 30 daysnoted, class does not change
Tax debt up to 3 daysno effect (usually a delayed bank payment)
Rescheduled tax debthighest class BBB
Tax debt over 90 days in total in the last 2 yearshighest class BBB
Enforcement or payment order in the last 24 monthshighest class BB
Payment default published in the Firmo debt register (the debtor was notified and had 7 days to respond)highest class BB
2 or more payment defaults or over €5,000 in total in the Firmo debt registerhighest class B
Tax Board demand to pay tax debt (Official Announcements) 2 or more times in 24 monthshighest class BB
Tax Board demand to pay tax debt in the last 12 monthshighest class BBB
A board member was on the board of another company at its bankruptcy (5 years; shareholders not counted; not counted if they left over 30 days before the bankruptcy)class one step lower
Negative equity with liquidity under 1 and a tax problem or cash buffer under 1 monthhighest class BB
Annual report not filed and the deadline (6 months after year end) has passedclass one step lower (for example AAA → AA)
The company is under 1 year oldhighest class BBB
Revenue (or 12-month turnover) under €1,000,000highest class AA
Revenue (or 12-month turnover) under €200,000highest class A
Inactive (no turnover or employees, has assets)highest class BB, holding company BBB

Credit limit and payment term

The recommended credit limit is the largest of three figures: from monthly turnover, from equity or from annual profit (free cash flow: AAA 50%, AA 40%, A 30%, BBB 20%, BB 10% of profit in a report up to 2 years old, up to 2× the turnover-based figure). The limit and payment term are calculated from the scorecard class (one step below the rating), because they must match the actual risk:

RatingOf monthly turnoverOmakapitalistPayment term
AAA25% kuni 50%10% kuni 20%21 to 30 days
AA25%10%21 days
A15%5%14 days
BBB7%2%7 days, guarantee recommended
BB, B, Cettemaksettemaksettemaks

Turnover is the larger of the last report's revenue or the last 4 quarters' turnover (Tax Board), so a growing or new company does not lose its limit because of an old report. Equity raises the limit up to 2× the turnover-based figure (up to €25,000 for a low-turnover company), because credit needs depend on purchases, not assets. Rounding: under €5,000 to hundreds, otherwise to thousands, up to €1,000,000.

Data freshness

  • Tax debt, announcements and register data update daily.
  • Turnover, taxes and employees update quarterly.
  • Cash, assets and equity come from the annual report, filed once a year. The page always shows the date of each figure.
  • We recalculate the points once a year with fresh bankruptcy data. Every change is recorded in this document.

Colours

Green means OK, yellow and orange mean attention, red means risk. Tax debt is always red, rescheduled debt orange. Colour is always accompanied by a symbol and text.

What the rating is not

The rating is an assessment based on open data, not a guarantee or financial advice. Before granting large credit, also check the partner's latest data and contract terms.

If you think the rating is wrong

Write to info@firmo.ee. We check whether the source data contains an error. We never change the rating manually, but if there is an error we fix the data and the rating is recalculated.